Earnings Edge

Earnings Edge

Previews

This Week's Most Anticipated Results: Setups for Nvidia, Walmart, Analog Devices, Deere, Take-Two, Workday, Zoom, and CAVA

Consensus Media's avatar
Consensus Media
May 16, 2026
∙ Paid

Relative winners and losers over the last quarter followed by detailed setups for each individual name.

Relative Winners and Losers

Nvidia (NVDA)

Bull Bullets: Vera Rubin ramp and hyperscaler capex acceleration extend AI infrastructure supercycle

  • The Vera Rubin platform begins partner shipments in H2 2026 with claimed 5x inference performance over Blackwell at one tenth the cost per token, providing a fresh product cycle catalyst as customers transition from Blackwell into the agentic AI inference era that Jensen Huang now describes as a “$1 trillion through 2027” revenue opportunity.

  • Hyperscaler capex commitments for 2026 sit at roughly $600 to $725 billion across Microsoft, Amazon, Google, Meta and Oracle (up 36 to 77 percent year over year), with Bank of America recently lifting its 2030 AI data center TAM forecast to $1.7 trillion, suggesting demand visibility extends well beyond what current Street estimates fully capture.

  • Sovereign AI initiatives across roughly 100 AI factories worldwide, combined with the reopening of H200 shipments to China under revised export rules, create incremental demand pools that were previously written out of consensus models, providing potential upside if conversion accelerates in H2 FY2027.

Bear Bullets: Custom ASICs, AMD share gains and capex digestion threaten growth durability

This post is for paid subscribers

Already a paid subscriber? Sign in
© 2026 Consensus Media · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture