Do we stand any chance of seeing earnings growth this year for Home Depot? Consensus says no and anticipates a modest decline (-1%), in line with implied guidance. Growth will require an unlock of the existing home housing market, and we have yet to see signs of that truly happening even with mortgage rates backing off marginally.
Related but unrelated, I would argue that the Home Depot deal for GMS, which it won by outbidding QXO, indicates that current retail sales channels are reaching saturation and the next leg of growth will have to come from an expanded building products distribution and pro channel.
As you can see, HD continues to trade at a multi-year high earnings multiple as we await a housing rebound:
