Curious the audience feedback for a new post-mortem compliment to Setup posts that looks at valuation changes relative to forward estimate changes in the wake of earnings.
Idea would be to highlight names that had dramatic share price reactions without much shifting in the underlying financial forecasts (or vice versa).
I think this makes the most sense at the end of the week? or maybe daily, after 24H of price discovery digestion? TBD - maybe even both.
If you have any thoughts about what to include, or how to display this visually, please share. I think at a minimum I would look at price change vs. change in forward 1-year and 2-year:
Revenue
Gross margin
Operating margin
EPS
FCF (but noting that sell-side cash flow models are atrocious, especially talking 13-24mo out)
Hell, maybe I even include more niche metrics like DAUs, ARPU, GMV, Billings, and RPOs.
Not sure if the right medium, but possibly consider showing mgmt guidance somehow? I have found that consensus literally just copies mgmt for most companies 95% of the time, but if there was a difference in guidance vs consensus that would be very notable (or like with HPE the fact that they didn't update guidance was incredibly useful)