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This preview opens with a summary of our calls on the names of note, then a one-page view of those names: a table of the key numbers, the points that stand out, and charts ranking them on relative performance, short interest, options pricing, valuation, estimate momentum, growth, positioning and trend. Each name of note follows with its setup table, a read on whether it leans long or short into the print based on that table, a bull and bear case, and a combined view that weighs the setup against the fundamental story and recent news. We close with a spreadsheet of setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.
Setup Summary
ARM - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - Data center strength offsets rich multiple; Qualcomm royalty ruling unresolved
QCOM - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Lean Short - Peak multiple meets Apple roll-off and handset downturn in guide
UBER - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - Record-low multiple offset by robotaxi overhang and weak reaction history
MCD - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - Pre-announced soft U.S. quarter and trough multiple lower the bar
MELI - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - Reliable underperformance bounce undercut by raised EPS bar amid margin compression
DDOG - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - Expensive multiple versus de-risked guide; largest customer outlook decides it
APP - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - Trough multiple and model upgrade already in the guide
COHR - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - De-rated multiple, rising estimates; margin guide versus CPO ramp decides it
EXPE - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - Low Q3 bar and record short interest outweigh recent sell-the-beat pattern
SN - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - Record multiple offsets raised guidance and tariff refund tailwind
GFS - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - Trough multiple and accelerating AI optical growth outweigh dilution concerns
CRCL - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - Thin history; Arc one-offs versus slowing USDC growth leave no edge
W - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - Unhedged re-rating offset by guided high-single-digit revenue acceleration
FICO - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - Crowded short and low bar versus unresolved FHFA mortgage score threat
The table reads lean long on 7 names, short on 5 and stay away on 2, while the combined views come out 5 long, 1 short (QCOM) and 8 stay away. The two views agreed on 8 of 14 names; all 6 disagreements (ARM, MELI, DDOG, SN, W, FICO) moved to stay away once the news was weighed.
Wednesday at a Glance
The names of note, ordered by report time. Figures come from the setup tables below; the charts that follow rank the names on each measure.
Shading: red marks the three heaviest short interest readings, a forward multiple in the top quarter of its own 5-year range, and an implied move at least 1 point above the average of the last 8 reactions. Blue marks the opposite. P/E percentile ranks today against the prior quarters in each table. Avg. move is the average absolute one-day reaction.
What Stands Out
• Short interest: CRCL is the most crowded short at 12.4% of float. FICO (11.6%) and SN (10.1%) are also above 10%.
• Relative performance: 5 names are ahead of SPY since their last print, led by SN (+14.1 pts). FICO (-38.1 pts) and COHR (-33.0 pts) lag most.
• Options vs. history: Options price more than usual for ARM (10.2% vs. 5.9% avg.) and DDOG (15.6% vs. 12.2% avg.), less for CRCL (10.5% vs. 13.0%).
• Valuation: Near the top of their 5-year multiple range: QCOM (17.5x, 100th pct) and SN (30.1x, 100th pct). Near the bottom: UBER (0th pct), APP (0th pct) and CRCL (0th pct).
• Estimates: NTM EPS estimates rose over the last 75 days for 13 of 14 names. COHR leads (+11.9%). FICO saw the largest cut (-8.5%).
• Growth and track record: QCOM (-18.5%) has shrinking forward EPS. DDOG beat in 8 of its last 8 prints; MELI in only 3 of 8.
• Positioning: ARM has the steepest put skew (3.2%); MCD the lowest put/call open interest (0.57). COHR carries the most puts vs. calls (1.50).
Rankings by Category
Names of Note
Arm Holdings (ARM)