Earnings Edge for Wednesday: Setups for Tesla, ServiceNow, Vertiv, Lam Research, GE Aerospace, Philip Morris, Texas Instruments, AT&T, Boeing, United Rentals, Southwest, and Many More
Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.
Relative Winners and Losers
Names of Note
Tesla (TSLA)
Bull Bullets: Robotaxi commercialization inflection, energy storage TAM expansion, and AI platform re-rating
Tesla’s Austin Robotaxi fleet has reached 135 vehicles in active service, with commercial expansion to multiple cities planned for 2026 and FSD v14.3 rolling out broadly. Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla’s cost-per-mile at $0.81, well below Waymo ($1.43) and traditional rideshare ($1.71), suggesting a compelling unit economics advantage if regulatory approvals scale. Bank of America reinstated coverage with a $460 target, citing the vision-only approach as a scalable cost advantage.
Tesla Energy is emerging as a meaningful profit contributor, generating $12.77 billion at ~30% margins in FY2025 and targeting further scale via the Shanghai Megafactory and Megapack 3 launches. This high-margin business diversifies Tesla away from the increasingly competitive EV market and could contribute ~25% of total company profits in 2026. The energy storage TAM is expanding rapidly as global demand for grid-scale battery solutions accelerates.
The Cybercab production ramp beginning this month, Semi volume production plans, and Optimus v2.5 commercial sales expected by late 2026 collectively represent optionality that is not fully priced in many analyst models. FSD subscriptions grew 38% year-over-year to 1.1 million, validating the software monetization flywheel. Strong European demand (France +203%, Denmark +144% Q1 registrations) suggests the refreshed Model Y is resonating.
Bear Bullets: Q1 delivery miss, brand damage from political association, and extreme valuation disconnect
Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 missed consensus by ~7,600 units, with energy storage at 8.8 GWh missing by nearly 40%. Tesla produced ~50,000 more vehicles than delivered, extending an inventory buildup pattern that signals weakening demand. Full-year 2025 deliveries, revenue, and earnings all declined, and BYD has surpassed Tesla as the global EV leader with 2.26 million units delivered.
CEO Elon Musk’s political activities have generated measurable brand damage and demand headwinds in key markets. Federal EV tax credits have expired, intensifying price competition. With only 14.5% of prediction market participants believing Tesla will launch robotaxis in California by June 2026, the autonomous timeline carries substantial execution risk. The 13 Buy / 11 Hold / 6 Sell analyst split reflects unusually elevated sell-side skepticism for a mega-cap.
At a ~$1.16 trillion market cap and ~20% YTD decline, Tesla’s auto business alone cannot justify the current valuation — the thesis rests entirely on AI and energy optionality that remains pre-revenue at meaningful scale. If Cybercab production slips, robotaxi expansion stalls, or FSD safety data disappoints, the stock’s premium over traditional automakers could compress dramatically.
Key Investment Thesis
Tesla is an electric vehicle manufacturer and energy company that is pivoting toward autonomous driving, robotics, and AI infrastructure.
Upside Case: If Cybercab production ramps on schedule, robotaxi expands to multiple cities with favorable unit economics, and FSD v14.3 demonstrates measurable safety improvements, Tesla’s transformation from hardware-margin auto company to high-margin AI/services platform would justify — and potentially exceed — the current valuation.
Downside Case: Continued delivery misses, energy storage deployment shortfalls, and failure to achieve unsupervised FSD regulatory approvals in major markets would expose the trillion-dollar valuation as premature — particularly if the political brand headwind persists and BYD continues gaining global EV share.
Differentiation: Tesla is the only company simultaneously pursuing volume EV manufacturing, autonomous driving deployment, grid-scale energy storage, and humanoid robotics — a breadth of AI-physical integration that no competitor matches, though it also creates execution complexity across multiple capital-intensive frontiers.
ServiceNow (NOW)
Bull Bullets: AI workflow automation demand, Now Assist scaling toward $1B ACV, and resilient enterprise positioning
