Earnings Edge for Tuesday: Setups for Home Depot, Keysight Technologies, Trip.com, Amer Sports, ZTO Express, Toll Brothers, Cava, Bilibili, and More

Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Home Depot (HD)

Bull Bullets: Housing thaw optionality, Pro/SRS share gains, depressed valuation entry point.

• Mortgage rates have stabilized near 6.01% (lowest in over three years), and if existing home sales begin reversing the 8.4% January plunge, HD’s “Market Recovery Case” implies 4-5% comp growth versus the flat-to-+2% base case. A second-half inflection in big-ticket discretionary spending would re-rate the multiple meaningfully.

• SRS organic sales are guided to grow mid-single digits in FY26 with 40-50 new SRS locations, deepening HD’s structural Pro positioning where it has already been outperforming DIY. As GMS integration annualizes, the Pro flywheel becomes a clearer growth engine independent of the housing cycle.

• HD has tumbled roughly 14% YTD with shares near 52-week lows around $297, well below the $400 average analyst target. Sentiment is washed out heading into the print, creating asymmetric setup if Q1 commentary signals demand stabilization.

Bear Bullets: Frozen housing market, near-term margin compression, tariff overhang.