Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.
Relative Winners and Losers
Names of Note
Home Depot (HD)
Bull Bullets: Housing thaw optionality, Pro/SRS share gains, depressed valuation entry point.
Mortgage rates have stabilized near 6.01% (lowest in over three years), and if existing home sales begin reversing the 8.4% January plunge, HD’s “Market Recovery Case” implies 4-5% comp growth versus the flat-to-+2% base case. A second-half inflection in big-ticket discretionary spending would re-rate the multiple meaningfully.
SRS organic sales are guided to grow mid-single digits in FY26 with 40-50 new SRS locations, deepening HD’s structural Pro positioning where it has already been outperforming DIY. As GMS integration annualizes, the Pro flywheel becomes a clearer growth engine independent of the housing cycle.
HD has tumbled roughly 14% YTD with shares near 52-week lows around $297, well below the $400 average analyst target. Sentiment is washed out heading into the print, creating asymmetric setup if Q1 commentary signals demand stabilization.
Bear Bullets: Frozen housing market, near-term margin compression, tariff overhang.