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This preview opens with a summary of our calls on the names of note, then a one-page view of those names: a table of the key numbers, the points that stand out, and charts ranking them on relative performance, short interest, options pricing, valuation, estimate momentum, growth, positioning and trend. Each name of note follows with its setup table, a read on whether it leans long or short into the print based on that table, a bull and bear case, and a combined view that weighs the setup against the fundamental story and recent news. We close with a spreadsheet of setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.
Setup Summary
NET - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Lean Long - Repeated large beats of its own guide outweigh the rich multiple
ABNB - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - Strong guide offsets raised bar and weak Q3 reaction history
AXON - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - Compressed multiple and record short interest outweigh known margin pressure
MNST - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - Peak 38.3x multiple versus Q4 U.S. pricing support
AFRM - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - Record-low 34.2x multiple with estimates rising into the print
TEAM - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - Re-rated to 34.7x with short squeeze fuel largely spent
U - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - Low multiple and accelerating Vector growth; the Q4 guide decides it
NTRA - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - Strong business, but record 17.8x P/S and rich implied move
MCHP - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Lean Long - Multiple reset to market level with industrial recovery and bookings support
LYV - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - Legal rulings outweigh a solid quarter; crowded short limits downside
AKAM - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - Anthropic revenue upside versus capex-driven EPS cuts leaves no edge
TXRH - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - Clean positioning and Q3 history; 2027 beef outlook decides it
DKNG - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - Unfavorable September and October hold puts full-year EBITDA guide at risk
FROG - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - Beatable guide offset by 89x multiple and a rich implied move
On the tables alone, Thursday reads 5 longs, 3 shorts and 6 stay aways; after weighing the fundamentals and news, the combined views land at 6 longs, no shorts and 8 stay aways. The two reads agreed on 8 of 14 names, and every short called from the table was softened to a stay away once the news was weighed.
Thursday at a Glance
The names of note, ordered by report time. Figures come from the setup tables below; the charts that follow rank the names on each measure.
Shading: red marks the three heaviest short interest readings, a forward multiple in the top quarter of its own 5-year range, and an implied move at least 1 point above the average of the last 8 reactions. Blue marks the opposite. P/E percentile ranks today against the prior quarters in each table. Avg. move is the average absolute one-day reaction.
What Stands Out
• Short interest: LYV is the most crowded short at 15.1% of float. AKAM (13.3%) is also above 10%.
• Relative performance: 4 names are ahead of SPY since their last print, led by TEAM (+28.0 pts). AXON (-23.0 pts) and AKAM (-19.1 pts) lag most.
• Options vs. history: Options price more than usual for MCHP (8.6% vs. 4.8% avg.) and FROG (15.9% vs. 12.5% avg.), less for AXON (12.4% vs. 15.8%) and TEAM (13.3% vs. 14.8%).
• Valuation: Near the top of their 5-year multiple range: NTRA (17.8x, 100th pct) and MNST (38.3x, 95th pct). Near the bottom: AFRM (0th pct), AXON (11th pct) and AKAM (11th pct).
• Estimates: NTM EPS estimates rose over the last 75 days for 12 of 14 names. LYV leads (+35.0%). NTRA saw the largest cut (-12.1%).
• Growth and track record: AFRM (-61.9%), TEAM (-6.4%) and AKAM (-3.4%) have shrinking forward EPS. TEAM beat in 8 of its last 8 prints; TXRH in only 3 of 8.
• Positioning: LYV has the steepest put skew (3.8%); DKNG the lowest put/call open interest (0.31). AFRM carries the most puts vs. calls (1.24).
Rankings by Category
Names of Note
Cloudflare (NET)