Earnings Edge for Thursday: Setups for Applied Materials, Nu Holdings, Figma, Intuitive Machines, Versant Media, Klarna, Ondas, DLocal, YETI, StoneCo, and Many More
Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.
Relative Winners and Losers
Names of Note
Applied Materials (AMAT)
Bull Bullets: H2 2026 WFE acceleration plus AI memory cycle drives re-rating
Management has consistently flagged that customer spending decisions are building toward a broader ramp in H2 calendar 2026 across leading-edge logic, DRAM and HBM, with TSMC’s $52 to $56 billion 2026 capex commitment providing a concrete forward demand signal for Applied’s largest customer category.
The EPIC R&D Center in Silicon Valley, with Samsung and Micron as founding co-development partners, positions Applied at the heart of angstrom-era process inflections where its tools are difficult for non-US peers to replace, supporting the multi-year “high-value inflection” thesis management has emphasized into the May print.
Consensus sees normalized EPS stepping from roughly $11 in FY2026 toward $14 in FY2027, and SEMI’s projection of WFE rising about 9% to $126 billion in 2026 then another 7% in 2027 underpins the case that the AI-driven equipment supercycle is supply-constrained rather than demand-constrained.
Bear Bullets: China policy overhang and crowded H2 2026 expectations risk disappointment
New US export controls have already triggered a projected $600 million revenue hit for fiscal 2026, with management guiding China revenue toward the mid-20% range from nearly 40% in FY2024, leaving Applied structurally more exposed than non-US peers like ASML and Tokyo Electron who can still supply restricted Chinese fabs.
Bears argue the “H2 2026 acceleration” framing has been pulled forward into the current valuation and the May guide must validate timing rather than just direction, with any pushout into 2027 (or a demand air pocket once current fab projects complete) likely to compress multiples after a strong run.
The competitive landscape inside China is shifting toward local equipment vendors, particularly in deposition adjacencies, which combined with potential operating margin plateau below 32% as EPIC R&D spending scales could delay the earnings compounding narrative bulls are underwriting.
Key Investment Thesis Applied Materials is the largest US semiconductor capital equipment supplier, providing materials engineering tools across deposition, etch, CMP, packaging and metrology for foundry/logic, DRAM/HBM and advanced packaging customers.
Upside Case: AI-driven WFE demand inflects in H2 calendar 2026 with DRAM and HBM capacity additions plus 2nm logic ramps pulling Applied’s tool intensity higher, allowing management to walk forward FY2027 EPS toward the $14 zone while EPIC partnerships compound the long-cycle moat. Downside Case: A combination of further China export curbs, a 2027 demand air pocket once TSMC’s 2026 spend digests, and faster deposition share loss to Chinese local champions compresses both estimates and the cycle multiple, with the stock retracing toward bear case targets near $182. Differentiation: Applied is the only equipment vendor with leadership positions across nearly every process step from atomic-scale deposition to hybrid bonding packaging, giving it the broadest exposure to materials-driven inflections that competitors must access piecemeal.
Nu Holdings (NU)
Bull Bullets: US OCC charter plus Mexico bank conversion open the next leg of TAM