Earnings Edge for Thursday: Setups for Adobe, Ulta Beauty, Lennar, Dick's Sporting Goods, Rubrik, SentinelOne, Dollar General, Li Auto, and Many More
Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.
Relative Winners and Losers
Names of Note
Adobe (ADBE)
Bull Bullets: Extreme Valuation Reset Creates Entry Point As AI Monetization Inflects
AI product ARR inflection signal monetization has begun. Adobe’s AI-first standalone and add-on products exited FY2025 with over $125M in ending ARR book of business, and Q1 FY2026 earnings on March 12 will be the first major test of whether the company can demonstrate continued AI upsell momentum. If net new digital media ARR comes in at or above the $440–450M analyst consensus, it would signal that AI tools are generating real incremental revenue rather than merely defending the installed base, a potential catalyst for significant re-rating.
Semrush acquisition and ChatGPT integration open new total addressable market. Adobe’s pending $1.9B acquisition of Semrush and deepened integration of its applications with ChatGPT expand the company’s reach into digital marketing analytics and generative AI workflows, markets that were largely inaccessible to Adobe’s legacy creative suite. If the Semrush deal closes and integration synergies materialize in the back half of FY2026, Adobe could unlock a new cohort of marketing professionals as net-new subscription customers, supporting the company’s FY2026 target of 10.2% total ARR growth.
Stock trading at historically compressed multiples after 57% drawdown. Adobe has fallen from its 2025 peak to levels not seen since 2019, now trading at approximately 11–12x forward non-GAAP earnings — nearly 50% below historical averages — largely on fear of AI disruption rather than demonstrated fundamental deterioration. With management guiding for $25.9–26.1B in FY2026 revenue and the ARR base remaining intact at $25.2B, a stabilization in ARR growth or guidance raise on March 12 could trigger a meaningful valuation recovery from deeply oversold levels.
Bear Bullets: Agentic AI Disruption Risk Remains Unresolved Heading Into Print