By reading this article and continuing to use this website, you acknowledge and agree to our Disclaimer and Terms. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.
Setup Summary
JPM - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - de-rated to 13.5x as capital markets guidance lifts estimates
BAC - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - fee warning priced in; past selloffs into prints held up
MS - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - deep selloff into print, reset bar, heavy put hedging
GS - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - bad news pre-guided and priced, record underperformance
WFC - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - compressed 10.7x multiple, hedged positioning, margin dilution fading
C - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - derated and hedged; raised guidance likely already in estimates
BLK - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - cheap multiple, lagging SPY, private credit redemptions easing
SCHW - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - bottom-of-range 13.2x multiple, clean positioning despite a raised bar
IBKR - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - Q3 trading activity cooled while EPS estimates rose 5.5%
PGR - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - cheap with a lowered bar, but August margins slipped
JNJ - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - record 22.9x multiple offset by possible DePuy sale catalyst
UNH - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - compressed 17.7x multiple, accelerating EPS growth outweigh star ratings risk
DPZ - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - lowest multiple on record, but comps stall under a new CEO
PLD - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - compressed multiple, raised core FFO guide, nine straight positive reactions
The tables lean long on 13 of 14 names, with JNJ the lone short and no table calls to stay away. The combined views agree with the table on 10 names and move the other four (IBKR, PGR, JNJ and DPZ) to Stay Away, so the two views mostly agreed and the week skews long.
This preview opens with a summary of our calls on the names of note, then a one-page view of those names: a table of the key numbers, the points that stand out, and charts ranking them on relative performance, short interest, options pricing, valuation, estimate momentum, growth, positioning and trend. Each name of note follows with its setup table, a read on whether it leans long or short into the print based on that table, a bull and bear case, and a combined view that weighs the setup against the fundamental story and recent news. We close with a spreadsheet of setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.
Week Ahead at a Glance
The names of note, ordered by report time. Figures come from the setup tables below; the charts that follow rank the names on each measure.
Shading: red marks the three heaviest short interest readings, a forward multiple in the top quarter of its own 5-year range, and an implied move at least 1 point above the average of the last 8 reactions. Blue marks the opposite. P/E percentile ranks today against the prior quarters in each table. Avg. move is the average absolute one-day reaction.
What Stands Out
• Short interest: DPZ is the most crowded short at 9.9% of float. Next is IBKR at 2.8%.