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Setup Summary
COST - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - pre-disclosed comps remove revenue surprise, multiple already reset
CTAS - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - best forward growth in the table, near-record short base
AZO - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Lean Long - LIFO drag rolling off against cheapest multiple since 2022
PAYX - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - largest relative run in the table, conservative float guide
DRI - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Lean Long - growth deceleration is a calendar artifact, bar pre-lowered
SNX - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Lean Short - last quarter’s 17.1% beat still traded down 2.0%
GIS - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Lean Short - no pre-print estimate cut to squeeze against this time
THO - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Lean Short - shipments undershooting an already cut industry forecast
KBH - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - record short base against a rate hike days earlier
CBRL - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - first guide from a new chief executive, unpriceable
The table reads produce two longs, four shorts and four stay-aways, while the combined views land on three longs, three shorts and four stay-aways. The two agreed on four of the ten names, so today is a day where the fundamental and news overlay mostly moderated the table’s call rather than reinforcing it, with the disagreements clustered in the rate-sensitive and calendar-distorted names.
Names of Note
Costco Wholesale (COST)
COST reports Thursday, September 24 (FQ4 2026)
Research as of: September 17, 2026
Directional Commentary - Lean Short