Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all 60+ of the week’s reporters.
Relative Winners and Losers
Names of Note
Netflix (NFLX)
Bull Bullets: Ad Revenue Doubling, WBD Exit Clarity, and Margin Expansion Fuel Re-Rating
Netflix’s advertising business more than doubled to ~$1.5B in 2025 and management has guided for it to roughly double again to ~$3B in 2026, representing a meaningful and still underappreciated revenue layer that carries structurally higher margins than subscription revenue — if this ramp materializes on schedule, consensus estimates may prove conservative.
The abandoned Warner Bros. Discovery bid — which Paramount Skydance ultimately won — removes a massive overhang: Netflix retains a $2.8B breakup fee, avoids billions in acquisition debt, and can now execute its organic growth roadmap with full capital flexibility, including an $8B remaining buyback authorization that could be deployed aggressively in 2026.
Live sports monetization (ad-supported viewers don’t skip ads and command premium CPMs) and a redesigned mobile interface planned for late 2026 are forward catalysts that the market has not fully priced in; Netflix management is guiding to $51B revenue and a 31.5% operating margin in 2026, reflecting continued operating leverage as content spend grows slower than revenue.
Bear Bullets: WBD Overhang Lingers, Content Cost Headwinds, and Valuation Leaves No Room for Error