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This preview opens with a summary of our calls on the names of note, then a one-page view of those names: a table of the key numbers, the points that stand out, and charts ranking them on relative performance, short interest, options pricing, valuation, estimate momentum, growth, positioning and trend. Each name of note follows with its setup table, a read on whether it leans long or short into the print based on that table, a bull and bear case, and a combined view that weighs the setup against the fundamental story and recent news. We close with a spreadsheet of setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.
Setup Summary
TTWO - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - de-rated 25.1x multiple and short fuel with GTA VI ten days out
RKLB - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - Neutron slip already in estimates; bar reset and positioning clean
ASTS - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - no beats in eight quarters against a rich implied move
VST - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - multi-year low multiple ahead of a post-Cogentrix guidance update
HIMS - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Lean Short - six straight post-print EPS cuts with margins still compressing
BILL - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - record-low 13.4x multiple and heavy short interest behind steady beats
TTD - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - guidance credibility broken after Q2 missed the company’s own floor
MNDY - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - cheap and hedged, but slowing revenue guidance decides the reaction
ZETA - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - accelerating revenue, clean positioning and an unbroken beat-and-raise record
MRNA - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - stretched 41.7x P/S against a binary pipeline update
KKR - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - record-low 11.3x multiple and crowded puts ahead of the USI realization
CEG - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - lowest multiple in its history plus the Google contract catalyst
OXY - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - estimates now price war-driven oil that could reverse after the midterms
On the combined view, seven names lean long, one leans short and five are stay-aways. The table reads and combined views agreed on 10 of 13 names, and all three disagreements (MNDY, MRNA, OXY) moved to Stay Away.
Week Ahead at a Glance
The names of note, ordered by report time. Figures come from the setup tables below; the charts that follow rank the names on each measure.
Shading: red marks the three heaviest short interest readings, a forward multiple in the top quarter of its own 5-year range, and an implied move at least 1 point above the average of the last 8 reactions. Blue marks the opposite. P/E percentile ranks today against the prior quarters in each table. Avg. move is the average absolute one-day reaction.
What Stands Out
• Short interest: HIMS is the most crowded short at 25.0% of float. ASTS (22.6%), TTD (20.0%), MNDY (15.0%) and BILL (14.5%) are also above 10%.
• Relative performance: 5 names are ahead of SPY since their last print, led by MRNA (+368.4 pts). ASTS (-51.6 pts) and RKLB (-35.0 pts) lag most.
• Options vs. history: Options price more than usual for ASTS (13.6% vs. 6.9% avg.) and MRNA (8.9% vs. 4.2% avg.), less for TTWO (2.0% vs. 6.5%) and TTD (14.6% vs. 16.3%).
• Valuation: Near the top of their 5-year multiple range: MRNA (41.7x, 100th pct). Near the bottom: BILL (0th pct), MNDY (0th pct) and KKR (0th pct).
• Estimates: NTM EPS estimates rose over the last 75 days for 10 of 13 names. OXY leads (+35.8%). RKLB saw the largest cut (-27.6%).
• Growth and track record: HIMS (-71.1%) and TTD (-44.0%) have shrinking forward EPS. BILL beat in 8 of its last 8 prints; ASTS in only 0 of 8.
• Positioning: BILL has the steepest put skew (8.3%); TTD the lowest put/call open interest (0.34). KKR carries the most puts vs. calls (2.15).
Rankings by Category
Names of Note
Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO)
Directional Commentary - Lean Long