Dark Clouds Be Damned, Back to Multi-Year Valuation Highs: Previewing UnitedHealth's Earnings

This rally has pushed UNH’s forward earnings multiple, based on depressed 2025 earnings estimates, to a multiyear high of 23x. This is above its 5- and 10-year historical averages, signaling that investors are paying a premium and betting that 2025’s problems are a one-time reset, not a new reality.

The Central Conflict: Revenue Up, Profits Down

The consensus analyst estimates for Q3 perfectly capture the “dark clouds”. While Wall Street expects top-line revenue to remain strong at around $113 billion (a healthy ~12% year-over-year increase), the bottom line is expected to collapse.

The consensus EPS forecast is just $2.83. This represents a staggering 60% drop from the $7.15 per share reported in the same quarter last year.

This disconnect is the entire story: UNH can still grow, but can it profit?

The “Dark Clouds” Remain