Setup Summary

JPM - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - de-rated to 13.5x as capital markets guidance lifts estimates

BAC - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - fee warning priced in; past selloffs into prints held up

MS - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - deep selloff into print, reset bar, heavy put hedging

GS - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - bad news pre-guided and priced, record underperformance

WFC - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - compressed 10.7x multiple, hedged positioning, margin dilution fading

C - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - derated and hedged; raised guidance likely already in estimates

BLK - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - cheap multiple, lagging SPY, private credit redemptions easing

SCHW - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - bottom-of-range 13.2x multiple, clean positioning despite a raised bar

IBKR - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - Q3 trading activity cooled while EPS estimates rose 5.5%

PGR - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - cheap with a lowered bar, but August margins slipped

JNJ - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - record 22.9x multiple offset by possible DePuy sale catalyst

UNH - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - compressed 17.7x multiple, accelerating EPS growth outweigh star ratings risk

DPZ - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - lowest multiple on record, but comps stall under a new CEO

PLD - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - compressed multiple, raised core FFO guide, nine straight positive reactions

The tables lean long on 13 of 14 names, with JNJ the lone short and no table calls to stay away. The combined views agree with the table on 10 names and move the other four (IBKR, PGR, JNJ and DPZ) to Stay Away, so the two views mostly agreed and the week skews long.

This preview opens with a summary of our calls on the names of note, then a one-page view of those names: a table of the key numbers, the points that stand out, and charts ranking them on relative performance, short interest, options pricing, valuation, estimate momentum, growth, positioning and trend. Each name of note follows with its setup table, a read on whether it leans long or short into the print based on that table, a bull and bear case, and a combined view that weighs the setup against the fundamental story and recent news. We close with a spreadsheet of setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.

Week Ahead at a Glance

The names of note, ordered by report time. Figures come from the setup tables below; the charts that follow rank the names on each measure.

Shading: red marks the three heaviest short interest readings, a forward multiple in the top quarter of its own 5-year range, and an implied move at least 1 point above the average of the last 8 reactions. Blue marks the opposite. P/E percentile ranks today against the prior quarters in each table. Avg. move is the average absolute one-day reaction.

What Stands Out

• Short interest: DPZ is the most crowded short at 9.9% of float. Next is IBKR at 2.8%.

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This preview opens with a summary of our calls on the names of note, then a one-page view of those names: a table of the key numbers, the points that stand out, and charts ranking them on relative performance, short interest, options pricing, valuation, estimate momentum, growth, positioning and trend. Each name of note follows with its setup table, a read on whether it leans long or short into the print based on that table, a bull and bear case, and a combined view that weighs the setup against the fundamental story and recent news. We close with a spreadsheet of setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.

Setup Summary

PEP - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - record-low multiple and reset sentiment outweigh stalled snack volumes

DAL - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - 8% estimate cuts leave a low bar into the print

STZ - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - cheap multiple, but beer depletions still declining

RPM - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - record-low multiple, rising estimates, investor day catalyst ahead

LEVI - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - weak fiscal Q3 history offset by reset targets and margin step-up

APLD - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Lean Long - Polaris Forge delivery tips a balanced setup modestly long

VFS - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - delayed results and restructuring leave no clean trade

LW - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - European crop cuts undermine a favorable fiscal Q1 history

AEHR - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - peak multiple and unconfirmed date against strong AI orders

PENG - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - weak fiscal Q4 history versus strong AI memory demand

The table reads come out at 5 Lean Long, 3 Lean Short and 2 Stay Away, while the combined views come out at 4 Lean Long, 0 Lean Short and 6 Stay Away. The two views agreed on only 4 of 10 names today, and where they disagreed the news mostly pulled the call toward Stay Away rather than flipping its direction.

Week Ahead at a Glance

The names of note, ordered by report time. Figures come from the setup tables below; the charts that follow rank the names on each measure.

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The forward revenue drift LOWER here for Micron (MU) looks a bit odd - I have trouble believe this unless the company itself nudged analysts in concert? We’ll find out shortly. At the base of this post you’ll find a working three-statement Excel model.

Consensus Estimate Preview + Earnings Drift + Forward Guidance Expectations

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This preview opens with a summary of our calls on the names of note, then a one-page view of those names: a table of the key numbers, the points that stand out, and charts ranking them on relative performance, short interest, options pricing, valuation, estimate momentum, growth, positioning and trend. Each name of note follows with its setup table, a read on whether it leans long or short into the print based on that table, a bull and bear case, and a combined view that weighs the setup against the fundamental story and recent news. We close with a spreadsheet of setup tables for all of the day’s reporters.

Setup Summary

Research as of September 22, 2026

MU - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - cheapest multiple in two years with estimates still rising

NKE - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - trough multiple offset by post-print estimate cuts and a long turnaround

BB - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - pullback resets the bar while QNX design wins keep coming

COST - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - strong monthly sales already known; modest beats rarely rewarded

ACN - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - sharp rally meets slowing growth; AI partnership offsets

JBL - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - fastest estimate momentum in its history after a pullback

CCL - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - lowest multiple in its history with estimates rising into the print

FDS - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - crowded short and rising estimates, but fiscal 2027 guide decides

KMX - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Lean Short - three quarters of outperformance while beats keep selling off

MTN - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - heavy short interest, but guidance has been cut after most prints

The table reads split 5 long, 2 short and 3 stay away; the combined views land at 5 long, 1 short and 4 stay away. The two views agreed on 9 of 10 names, with ACN moving from the table’s call to stay away once the news was weighed.

Week Ahead at a Glance

The names of note, ordered by report time. Figures come from the setup tables below; the charts that follow rank the names on each measure.

Shading: red marks the three heaviest short interest readings, a forward multiple in the top quarter of its own 5-year range, and an implied move at least 1 point above the average of the last 8 reactions. Blue marks the opposite. P/E percentile ranks today against the prior quarters in each table. Avg. move is the average absolute one-day reaction.

What Stands Out

• Short interest: MTN is the most crowded short at 16.4% of float. FDS (12.6%) is also above 10%.

• Relative performance: 3 names are ahead of SPY since their last print, led by ACN (+43.3 pts). BB (-31.5 pts) and CCL (-26.8 pts) lag most.

• Options vs. history: Options price more than usual for JBL (8.6% vs. 5.1% avg.) and CCL (6.1% vs. 4.7% avg.), less for MU (7.8% vs. 9.1%).

• Valuation: Near the bottom: NKE (0th pct), CCL (0th pct) and ACN (5th pct).

• Estimates: NTM EPS estimates rose over the last 75 days for 10 of 10 names. MU leads (+10.4%).

• Growth and track record: CCL (-4.1%) has shrinking forward EPS. MU beat in 8 of its last 8 prints; MTN in only 3 of 8.

• Positioning: KMX has the steepest put skew (5.7%); BB the lowest put/call open interest (0.23). FDS carries the most puts vs. calls (2.17).

Rankings by Category

Names of Note

Micron Technology (MU)

MU reports Wednesday, September 30, 2026 after the close (fiscal Q4 2026)

Research as of: September 22, 2026

Directional Commentary - Lean Long

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Setup Summary

COST - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - pre-disclosed comps remove revenue surprise, multiple already reset

CTAS - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - best forward growth in the table, near-record short base

AZO - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Lean Long - LIFO drag rolling off against cheapest multiple since 2022

PAYX - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Stay Away - largest relative run in the table, conservative float guide

DRI - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Lean Long - growth deceleration is a calendar artifact, bar pre-lowered

SNX - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Lean Short - last quarter’s 17.1% beat still traded down 2.0%

GIS - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Lean Short - no pre-print estimate cut to squeeze against this time

THO - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Lean Short - shipments undershooting an already cut industry forecast

KBH - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - record short base against a rate hike days earlier

CBRL - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - first guide from a new chief executive, unpriceable

The table reads produce two longs, four shorts and four stay-aways, while the combined views land on three longs, three shorts and four stay-aways. The two agreed on four of the ten names, so today is a day where the fundamental and news overlay mostly moderated the table’s call rather than reinforcing it, with the disagreements clustered in the rate-sensitive and calendar-distorted names.

Names of Note

Costco Wholesale (COST)

COST reports Thursday, September 24 (FQ4 2026)

Research as of: September 17, 2026

Directional Commentary - Lean Short

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Setting that aside, RH heads into earnings with a setup that looks increasingly asymmetric. This quarter is theirs for the taking and could set a new upward trajectory for the stock, if they capitalize.

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Summary positioning recommendations, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters. Each name of note comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, positioning, and historical reaction data, and closes with a combined view that weighs that setup against the fundamental story and recent news.

Setup Summary

ORCL - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - compressed multiple and rising estimates outweigh financing overhang

ADBE - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Lean Short - 26-point run-up into a name that sells beats

RH - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - 36% short interest against 4.3x leverage is a coin flip

SAIL - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Lean Short - second straight run-up with ARR guide decelerating

CHWY - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - multiple at table lows with vet care and buyback support

CASY - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - 22-point pullback into a near-perfect beat record

KR - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Stay Away - table likes the multiple, volume declines and price cuts do not

CPRT - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - record-low multiple versus zero growth and six straight declines

AVAV - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long - washed-out stock with fresh $465 million laser production award

JMKE - Table: Stay Away | Combined: Stay Away - first public print with no history to size against

Combined views net to 4 longs, 2 shorts, and 4 stay-aways across the ten names of note. The table reads and the combined views agreed on 9 of 10 names, with the only disagreement in KR, where the table leaned long on valuation but the volume and pricing news moved the call to stay away.

Names of Note

Oracle (ORCL)

ORCL reports Thursday, September 10, 2026, after the close (fiscal Q1 2027)

Research as of: July 9, 2026

Directional Commentary - Lean Long

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It hasn’t been a very fun month if you’re watching the chart for Broadcom’s CDS:

We’re still talking about small numbers here, but not exactly pretty for a company with nearly $2T of equity value. Hopefully tomorrow’s results can reset the trajectory on a path lower.

This post outlines Consensus estimates for the quarter and forward guidance, a historical valuation framework for evaluating the setup, and a downloadable, working three-statement 2029 Consensus financial model (change assumptions as you see fit to adjust results).

Consensus Estimates - The Lack of Drift Here Signifies a Big Beat, IMO

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With a full-throated endorsement from the President himself as well as blowout earnings from peers SMCI and Lenovo, it’s probably a death wish to fade Dell results into the print (even if the latter two are priced in). That said, we say ‘Stay Away’ for the reasons outlined below.

At the base of this note you will find our downloadable Consensus three statement financial model for Dell.

Consensus Estimate Preview + Earnings Drift + Forward Guidance Expectations

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Summary positioning recommendations, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters. Each name of note comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, positioning, and historical reaction data, and closes with a combined view that weighs that setup against the fundamental story and recent news.

Setup Summary

AVGO - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long
Cheapest multiple since 2023 against record accelerating growth

PANW - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Lean Short

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Historical Valuation Context

Directional Commentary - Lean Short

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Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

Directional Commentary - Lean Short

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Historical Valuation Context

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Historical Valuation Context

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Historical Valuation Context

Directional Commentary - Stay Away

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Nvidia (NVDA)

Directional Commentary - Stay Away

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Intuit (INTU)

Directional Commentary - Lean Long

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In the sections below we provide 1) detailed Consensus expectations for Walmart into this week’s print, 2) full Setup context including forward valuation + short interest + growth expectations + reaction history, 3) a working three Consensus financial model out through 2029, and 4) high-level bull/bear theses for the stock.

While Walmart has taken a big breather of late, it still sits at a historically high forward earnings multiple close to 40x:

With that context in mind, Consensus expects 12% earnings growth this quarter accelerating to 14% in 3Q - here are full, detailed expectations for the quarter concluded, the next quarter, and the full year:

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Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the week’s reporters. Each name of note now comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, and historical reaction data.

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Walmart (WMT)

Directional Commentary (STAY AWAY):

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Relative Winner…

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