Historical Valuation Context

Directional Commentary - Lean Short

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Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

Directional Commentary - Lean Short

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Historical Valuation Context

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Historical Valuation Context

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Historical Valuation Context

Directional Commentary - Stay Away

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Nvidia (NVDA)

Directional Commentary - Stay Away

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Intuit (INTU)

Directional Commentary - Lean Long

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In the sections below we provide 1) detailed Consensus expectations for Walmart into this week’s print, 2) full Setup context including forward valuation + short interest + growth expectations + reaction history, 3) a working three Consensus financial model out through 2029, and 4) high-level bull/bear theses for the stock.

While Walmart has taken a big breather of late, it still sits at a historically high forward earnings multiple close to 40x:

With that context in mind, Consensus expects 12% earnings growth this quarter accelerating to 14% in 3Q - here are full, detailed expectations for the quarter concluded, the next quarter, and the full year:

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Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the week’s reporters. Each name of note now comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, and historical reaction data.

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Walmart (WMT)

Directional Commentary (STAY AWAY):

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Relative Winner…

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Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters. Each name of note now comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, and historical reaction data.

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Applied Materials (AMAT)

DIRECTIONAL COMMENTARY

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Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters. Each name of note now comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, and historical reaction data.

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Nebius Group (NBIS)

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Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters. Each name of note now comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, and historical reaction data.

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Lumentum Holdings (LITE)

Directional Commentary:

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This is the third of our new-and-improved earnings previews that will contain working three statement financial models for your download, complete with forward forecasting and user ability to toggle. Would love to hear your feedback.

Rocket Lab Estimates + Financial Model

Below please see all of the important metrics for RKLB for the quarter and for forward guidance, along with how estimates have shifted intra-quarter (75D Est. Drift column). All of this is also available on a tab in the full three statement financial model attached below the table.

Here is the full financial model - feel free to play around with any and all assumptions, the model will update itself in response.

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This is the second of our new-and-improved earnings previews that will contain working three statement financial models for your download, complete with forward forecasting and user ability to toggle. Would love to hear your feedback.

Hims & Hers Estimates + Financial Model

Below please see all of the important metrics for HIMS for the quarter and for forward guidance, along with how estimates have shifted intra-quarter (75D Est. Drift column). All of this is also available on a tab in the full three statement financial model attached below the table.

Here is the full financial model - feel free to play around with any and all assumptions, the model will update itself in response.

Hims Ee 8

168KB ∙ XLSX file

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Valuation Context + Bull / Bear Theses

DIRECTIONAL COMMENTARY

HIMS enters the print having outperformed SPY by 2,714 bps since the last report, the fifth largest three month outperformance in the entire table, and the forward P/E has re-rated from 17.2x at Q4’25 to 26.5x at Q1’26 to 28.7x now, a 1.3x premium to SPY versus 0.8x two quarters ago. The forward growth mix is the problem: NTM revenue growth of 30.4% is up from 23.0%, but NTM EPS growth sits at negative 60.3%, a second straight quarter near that level, and the post-print NTM EPS revision has been negative in each of the last five reported quarters, including negative 24.8% at Q4’25 and negative 23.0% at Q3’25. The reaction history is the decisive input, because beats simply are not paid here: Q4’25 at 17.2x posted a 1,936.7% beat for a negative 0.3% move, Q3’25 at 44.6x posted a 3.5% beat for negative 3.6%, Q2’25 at 54.7x posted a 47.5% beat for negative 12.4%, and Q1’26 at 26.5x posted a 322.0% miss for negative 14.1%. Only one of the last eight prints, Q1’25 at 37.0x, closed higher, and that came off a miss. Short interest of 29.2% is the highest of any name in this table and is genuine squeeze fuel against a 12.8% options implied move that realized outcomes of 14.1%, 12.4%, 18.1% and 22.3% have repeatedly exceeded. Re-rated hard into the event, deteriorating on forward EPS, and with a reaction pattern that punishes good numbers: SHORT, small size, with the 29.2% short interest and the wide implied move capping conviction.

This is investment analysis, not advice. Do your own due diligence. Please note that we provide commentary on the setup without a deep fundamental edge.

Bull Bullets: Branded GLP-1 relaunch, international footprint, and 2030 targets drive re-acceleration

• Second quarter guidance of $680 million to $700 million implies 25% to 28% growth against the 4% posted in Q1, and the branded Wegovy and Ozempic assortment is now fully live on the platform following the March agreement with Novo Nordisk. A reaffirmation or raise of the $2.8 billion to $3.0 billion full year range would establish that the compounded-to-branded transition is behind the company rather than ahead of it.

• The Eucalyptus acquisition closed in June, adding the Juniper brand and a Japanese market entry on top of the ZAVA footprint in Europe and the planned Canadian launch. Non-weight-loss specialties spanning menopause, testosterone, dermatology and mental health are the mechanism by which management intends to dilute the GLP-1 concentration that has driven the volatility, and evidence of that mix shift is the single most valuable disclosure in this report.

• Forward EBITDA is the swing factor for sentiment, and guidance of $35 million to $55 million for the quarter would represent the first clean read on whether branded economics can support the margin structure. Delivery inside that range while holding the 2030 framework of at least $6.5 billion of revenue and $1.3 billion of adjusted EBITDA would give the market a reason to underwrite the model again after two quarters of estimate cuts.

Bear Bullets: FTC litigation, branded margin dilution, and supplier dependence pressure the model

• The suit brought in late July by the Federal Trade Commission alongside Utah and Los Angeles County targets subscription cancellation practices and the sharing of health information with advertising platforms, aiming squarely at the direct-to-consumer acquisition engine. A consent decree or adverse ruling that forces changes to signup and retention flows would structurally raise customer acquisition cost and slow the subscriber additions the guidance depends on.

• Distributing branded semaglutide at pricing consistent with other telehealth platforms removes the cost advantage that built the weight loss book and transfers economics back to the manufacturer. Novo Nordisk has already terminated a collaboration once and simultaneously sells through competing channels, leaving Hims dependent on a supplier whose incentives are not aligned with platform margin expansion.

• Full year guidance embeds a steep second half re-acceleration against a first quarter that grew 4%, and consensus has moved to a loss for 2026 from a prior profit expectation. The departure of the chief accounting officer announced in July adds an unwelcome question mark heading into a print where reported margin quality, not revenue, is the central debate.

Key Investment Thesis

Hims & Hers Health is a direct-to-consumer telehealth platform that connects patients with licensed providers and fulfills personalized prescription treatments across weight loss, sexual health, dermatology, mental health and hair care on a recurring subscription basis.

Upside Case: The branded GLP-1 relaunch restores sequential subscriber growth while the Eucalyptus, ZAVA and Canadian expansions add geographies that are not exposed to United States compounding regulation. If specialty categories scale toward the stated 2030 framework and EBITDA margin holds in the low double digits through the transition, the market re-underwrites a durable subscription compounder rather than a GLP-1 trade.

Downside Case: The FTC action forces changes to subscription mechanics that raise acquisition costs just as branded product economics compress gross margin, leaving the company growing revenue without converting it to profit. Continued negative forward EPS revisions against a premium multiple would leave the equity carrying growth-stock valuation on a business with deteriorating unit economics and unresolved regulatory overhang.

Differentiation: Vertical integration across proprietary electronic medical records, affiliated pharmacies and an owned brand portfolio gives Hims control of the patient relationship and pricing in a way pure marketplaces and traditional pharmacy channels cannot replicate. Few peers combine that infrastructure with a consumer brand capable of acquiring patients at scale outside insurance.

This is the first of our new-and-improved earnings previews that will contain working three statement financial models for your download, complete with forward forecasting and user ability to toggle. Would love to hear your feedback.

Monday.com Estimates + Financial Model
Below please see all of the important metrics for MNDY for the quarter and for forward guidance, along with how estimates have shifted intra-quarter (75D Est. Drift column). All of this is also available on a tab in the full three statement financial model attached below the table.

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Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters. Each name of note now comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, and historical reaction data.

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS)

HIMS reports Monday, August 10, 2026 (Q2 2026)

Research as of: August 3, 2026

DIRECTIONAL COMMENTARY

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Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters. Each name of note now comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, and historical reaction data.

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Vistra (VST)

VST reports Fri. 8/7 (Q2’26)

Research as of: August 3, 2026

DIRECTIONAL COMMENTARY (BUY / SELL / HOLD / SHORT):

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A big slate of reporters this afternoon - this post outlines expectations across key metrics for the quarters and the sets of forward guidance, with a historical valuation context overlay:

SanDisk (SNDK)

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Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters. Each name of note now comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, and historical reaction data.

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Cloudflare (NET)

Reports Thursday, August 6 after the close (Q2 2026)

Research as of: August 5, 2026

Directional Commentary

The setup into this print is priced for perfection. The stock enters at 35.7x forward price to sales, the richest multiple since Q4’21 at 41.6x and 21% above last quarter’s 29.4x, after outperforming SPY by 4,118 bps since the last report. Forward estimates are improving, with NTM revenue growth of 28.5% against 28.1% last quarter and NTM EPS growth of 28.9% against 24.6%, but the acceleration is incremental while the re-rating has been anything but. The historical reaction pattern at elevated multiples is unforgiving: Q1’26 went into the print at 29.4x with a 7.3% EPS beat and still fell 23.6%, and Q2’25 at 29.6x with a 12.9% beat fell 3.6%. The rewards have come from the other end of the range, with Q4’25 at 22.3x and a 2.9% beat returning 5.2% and Q4’24 at 23.8x and a 3.8% beat returning 17.8%. Short interest of 3.1% offers no squeeze fuel to offset a disappointment, and the options market is pricing plus or minus 10.3%, well short of the 23.6% downside delivered at a lower multiple three months ago. This is a SHORT into the print, small sizing given the underlying growth trend, with the expectation that a beat and raise gets sold.

Bull Bullets: Agentic web monetization and inference workloads support multi-year growth reacceleration

• Second quarter revenue guidance of $664 million to $665 million implies roughly 30% growth, and management has cleared its own revenue guide consistently. The forward question is whether the company can frame a path to a mid-30% exit rate for 2026, with sell-side work into the print looking for a full year raise larger than the quarter’s beat itself.

• Positioning as the neutral toll road for the agentic internet is the structural differentiator. Crawler controls and content licensing infrastructure give publishers negotiating leverage with AI companies, and management has framed micro-transactions for agentic requests as a new business model layered onto existing network scale, with transaction volumes potentially running well above one million per second.

• The AI-first reorganization resets the cost base without changing free cash flow expectations, with $140 million to $150 million of 2026 restructuring charges concentrated in the reported quarter. If net capacity growth in the quota-carrying sales force accelerates as guided, operating margin expansion and revenue acceleration can arrive together in 2027.

Bear Bullets: Premium multiple leaves no cushion for second-half deceleration or execution slippage

• The guided growth rate implies roughly four points of sequential deceleration against a comparison that is only one point tougher, and second-half comparisons tighten further. Guidance that does not credibly support a mid-30% exit rate risks a rapid de-rating from a multiple that already assumes the acceleration arrives.

• Gross margin has been drifting lower as faster growth in developer and AI products carries a structurally lower margin profile and network cost allocation rises. Continued mix shift toward inference and consumption-based workloads could keep margin under pressure precisely when the market is underwriting operating leverage.

• A headcount reduction of more than 1,100 during a go-to-market transformation creates execution risk in the exact quarters the market is underwriting. Slippage in quota capacity or large-deal timing would widen the gap between the multiple and delivered growth.

Key Investment Thesis

Cloudflare operates a global connectivity cloud that delivers network security, performance, and developer compute services from a distributed edge network spanning hundreds of cities.

Upside Case: If AI inference and agentic traffic settle onto edge infrastructure, the company captures a toll on a new layer of internet activity while its developer platform converts free users into large enterprise contracts. A guide toward a mid-30% growth exit rate combined with the reset cost base would validate both the growth reacceleration and the margin expansion the multiple already embeds.

Downside Case: Growth decelerates into tougher second-half comparisons while the restructuring disrupts sales productivity, leaving a premium multiple attached to a mid-20s growth rate. Gross margin erosion from lower-margin AI workloads would compound the problem by undercutting the operating leverage narrative.

Differentiation: Ownership of the network itself, rather than reselling hyperscaler capacity, gives the company a cost structure and latency profile competitors cannot easily replicate. Its neutrality between publishers and AI companies is a position no hyperscaler can credibly occupy.

Datadog (DDOG)

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