Earnings Edge

Who's In and Who's Out? Notes on Tomorrow’s S&P 500 / Index Changes

Consensus Media — Fri, 04 Sep 2026 01:58:58 GMT

Tomorrow at 5:15PM ET we get the quarterly update to the constituents of the S&P 500, the Mid Cap 400, and the Small Cap 600 indices. Per usual, this announcement will drive large, non-fundamental flows and distort prices across the board. This post outlines top eligible candidates for moves between each of the lists as well as over a decade of reaction data that shines a light on counter intuitive and therefore potentially profitable trading strategies.

The Candidates

Can Hock Give the AI Trade a Shot of Adrenaline? Previewing Broadcom’s Earnings

Consensus Media — Wed, 02 Sep 2026 01:52:54 GMT

By reading this article and continuing to use this website, you acknowledge and agree to our Disclaimer and Terms. Nothing on this site constitutes investment advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.

It hasn’t been a very fun month if you’re watching the chart for Broadcom’s CDS:

We’re still talking about small numbers here, but not exactly pretty for a company with nearly $2T of equity value. Hopefully tomorrow’s results can reset the trajectory on a path lower.

This post outlines Consensus estimates for the quarter and forward guidance, a historical valuation framework for evaluating the setup, and a downloadable, working three-statement 2029 Consensus financial model (change assumptions as you see fit to adjust results).

Consensus Estimates - The Lack of Drift Here Signifies a Big Beat, IMO

Outstanding Upside Yet Again: Recapping Dell’s Actuals vs. Consensus

Consensus Media — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:13:34 GMT

Shares were a bit cautious in reacting to this given how strong the stock has been and results from peers Super Micro and Lenovo, but are now +8%. Take a look at the scale of the upside:

Is Dell DOA Tomorrow? Previewing Consensus Expectations

Consensus Media — Tue, 01 Sep 2026 01:16:03 GMT

With a full-throated endorsement from the President himself as well as blowout earnings from peers SMCI and Lenovo, it’s probably a death wish to fade Dell results into the print (even if the latter two are priced in). That said, we say ‘Stay Away’ for the reasons outlined below.

At the base of this note you will find our downloadable Consensus three statement financial model for Dell.

Consensus Estimate Preview + Earnings Drift + Forward Guidance Expectations

Earnings Edge for the Week Ahead: Setups for Broadcom, Palo Alto Networks, Dell, Snowflake, HP Enterprise, Ciena, Credo, MongoDB, Guidewire, lululemon, GitLab and Many More

Consensus Media — Sun, 30 Aug 2026 14:09:37 GMT

Summary positioning recommendations, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters. Each name of note comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, positioning, and historical reaction data, and closes with a combined view that weighs that setup against the fundamental story and recent news.

Setup Summary

AVGO - Table: Lean Long | Combined: Lean Long
Cheapest multiple since 2023 against record accelerating growth

PANW - Table: Lean Short | Combined: Lean Short

“The Next Trillion Dollar Company”: Previewing Consensus Earnings for Marvell

Consensus Media — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 03:09:52 GMT

This post provides Marvell (MRVL) historical valuation context looking back twenty quarters, a summary of Consensus expectations for the print and forward guidance, and a working three-statement financial model to tinker with yourself.

Historical Valuation Context

Directional Commentary - Lean Short

Earnings Edge for Thursday: Setups for Marvell, Autodesk, Workday, Trip.com, Affirm, Ulta Beauty, Rubrik, Best Buy, IREN, Elastic, and Many More

Consensus Media — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 02:32:51 GMT

Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the day’s reporters. Each name of note now comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, and historical reaction data.

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Marvell Technology (MRVL)

Directional Commentary - Lean Short

Still in the Nosebleeds: Previewing CrowdStrike’s Consensus Earnings

Consensus Media — Wed, 26 Aug 2026 00:32:15 GMT

Furniture and cybersecurity - our two selections for asymmetric setups to the downside for tomorrow’s earnings slate. This post provides historical valuation context looking back twenty quarters, a summary of Consensus expectations for the print and forward guidance, and a working three-statement financial model to tinker with yourself.

Historical Valuation Context

An Atrocious Setup: Previewing Consensus Earnings for Williams-Sonoma

Consensus Media — Tue, 25 Aug 2026 17:35:54 GMT

Impervious to the disasters that are consumer, retail, and housing, Williams-Sonoma heads into tomorrow morning’s results with a historically rich valuation while sitting smack-dab in the middle of all three sectors, and with extreme downside asymmetry. This post provides historical valuation context looking back twenty quarters, a summary of Consensus expectations for the print and forward guidance, and a working three-statement financial model to tinker with yourself.

Historical Valuation Context

Previewing Nvidia’s Earnings: Valuation Context + Consensus Three Statement Financial Model

Consensus Media — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 16:14:24 GMT

What’s the correct read on the weekend news of an Nvidia price hike? Shares are not performing well despite an initial jump when 24H trading opened last night. The data below, which includes a Consensus, working Excel model that users can tinker with, should allow you to informatively gauge expectations into the print and react accordingly upon the release.

Historical Valuation Context

Directional Commentary - Stay Away

Earnings Edge for Wednesday: Setups for Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Salesforce, Synopsys, Agilent, Veeva Systems, Everpure, Williams-Sonoma, Okta, and Many More

Consensus Media — Mon, 24 Aug 2026 13:35:28 GMT

Names of Note

Nvidia (NVDA)

Directional Commentary - Stay Away

Earnings Edge for Monday/Tuesday: Setups for Intuit, PDD Holdings, Zoom Communications, DICK'S Sporting Goods, HEICO, Semtech, Box, JOYY, XPeng, and More

Consensus Media — Sun, 23 Aug 2026 21:13:13 GMT

Names of Note

Intuit (INTU)

Directional Commentary - Lean Long

Updating the Sandisk Model for Earnings Drift + Investor Day; Extending through FYE’29

Consensus Media — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 18:35:00 GMT

Here you go - Sandisk quarterly results across the full history of the spin entity, as well as forecasted results through 2029 (modeled to Consensus). We now have a tab that outlines changes in version history for major metrics.

Downloadable .xlsx below:

Is Nike Dead? A Consensus Three Statement Financial Model for Evaluation

Consensus Media — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 16:15:06 GMT

I THINK we are a long way from the Nike c-suite not knowing how to pronounce Dak Prescott’s name (RIP Donahoe), but we seemingly remain a long way from a large and sustained business performance inflection. The financial model attached provides Consensus estimates out for the next few years and allows users to tinker with each of the relevant assumptions. All of this flows into a working DCF model for you. Enjoy.

The Death of the Consumer? Previewing Walmart’s Earnings

Consensus Media — Wed, 19 Aug 2026 00:09:58 GMT

In the sections below we provide 1) detailed Consensus expectations for Walmart into this week’s print, 2) full Setup context including forward valuation + short interest + growth expectations + reaction history, 3) a working three Consensus financial model out through 2029, and 4) high-level bull/bear theses for the stock.

While Walmart has taken a big breather of late, it still sits at a historically high forward earnings multiple close to 40x:

With that context in mind, Consensus expects 12% earnings growth this quarter accelerating to 14% in 3Q - here are full, detailed expectations for the quarter concluded, the next quarter, and the full year:

Earnings Edge for the Week Ahead: Setups for Walmart, Alibaba, Analog Devices, Target, Home Depot, The TJX Companies, NetEase, Amer Sports, Klarna, BILL Holdings, and Many More

Consensus Media — Sun, 16 Aug 2026 02:39:57 GMT

Relative winners and losers over the last quarter, followed by names of note, concluding with a spreadsheet containing setup tables for all of the week’s reporters. Each name of note now comes with a direct read on whether the setup leans long or short into the print, grounded in the table’s valuation, growth, and historical reaction data.

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Walmart (WMT)

Directional Commentary (STAY AWAY):

Attention Space Mafia: AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) 2029 Consensus Three Statement Financial Model

Consensus Media — Sat, 15 Aug 2026 00:39:22 GMT

By popular request, a dynamic three statement financial model for AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) forecasted to Consensus out through 2029:

Earnings Edge for Friday: Setups for SailPoint, Vipshop, RLX Technology, JinkoSolar, and a Few More

Consensus Media — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 19:35:50 GMT

Relative Winner…

The Nebius (NBIS) 2029 Consensus Three Statement Financial Model

Consensus Media — Thu, 13 Aug 2026 16:51:09 GMT

Michael Burry and Jim Chanos vs. the world! We don’t make a conclusion here, but provide with a financial model to evaluate both sides. All three financial statements included with assumption toggles and a built in DCF. Enjoy!

Earnings Edge for Thursday: Setups for Applied Materials, JD.com, Nu Holdings, Tapestry, Madison Square Garden Sports, Birkenstock, Figure, Ondas, DLocal, YETI, and Many More

Consensus Media — Wed, 12 Aug 2026 16:28:09 GMT

Relative Winners and Losers

Names of Note

Applied Materials (AMAT)

DIRECTIONAL COMMENTARY